As outgoing Premier Jason Kenney knows, that's like herding scorpions
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Premier-designate Danielle Smith’s first big job is to get all her UCP MLAs moving in the same direction without public dissent.
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As outgoing Premier Jason Kenney knows, that’s like herding scorpions. The full caucus, including all six of her leadership opponents, is by no means onside with her Sovereignty Act plan for dealing with Ottawa.
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Smiles on the steps of McDougall Centre can’t mask the challenge. If real dissent bursts into the open, the UCP will be right back where Kenney lost his leadership, bitterly divided for the entertainment of a public expected to vote for them next May.
NDP Leader Rachel Notley expects “more internal palace drama.”
UCP supporters won’t take that from Notley, but they might listen to Ken Boessenkool, who was Rajan Sawhney’s campaign manager.
“Danielle Smith’s political project is best viewed as a kamikaze mission,” he writes in The Line, Jen Gerson’s substack.
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“Winning the Alberta UCP leadership, as she did on the sixth ballot, is like watching that finely wrought party strap itself into the plane.
“Danielle Smith’s premiership, it seems to me, is all but certain to go down in flames as it crashes into conservatism, the United Conservative Party and perhaps even Alberta itself.”
Boessenkool isn’t just any Alberta conservative voice. He both wrote and signed the famous Firewall Letter of 2000, which was also endorsed by Stephen Harper, Ted Morton and other luminaries of the movement.
The Firewall Letter demanded provincial control over pensions, policing and much else. But Harper himself insisted that it only promote measures the province was legally able to do for itself. The very thought of nullifying federal law was not only absent but anathema.
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The rule of law remains a bedrock principle of traditional conservatism. Smith’s victory lines it up for a head-on collision with populist anger. A deep split seems difficult to avoid.
Kenney received 51.4 per cent support in the May 18 leadership review that made him decide to quit. Smith won 53.8 per cent on the tense sixth ballot Thursday night, after scoring only 41 per cent of first choices on the initial count.
That’s not much difference in party support; but Kenney’s gone, deflated, and she’s arrived, triumphant.
Notley said Smith’s plan has votes from roughly one per cent of Alberta’s population. She got 42,423 on the final ballot count.
“If she’s going ahead with those things, she must wait until after a general election,” Notley said. “She has zero mandate.”
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Failing that, the question is whether Smith will ease off the tough talk as she tries to rally caucus unity or press on and virtually dare the MLAs to get behind her.
The answer was clear right off the top in her acceptance speech Thursday.
Alberta, she said, is “a place where the best and brightest come from every corner of this world to join with us in building one of the greatest places on earth to live, work and raise our families.
“But tonight marks the beginning of a new chapter in that great Alberta story.
“It is time for Alberta to take its place as a senior partner in building a strong and unified Canada.
“No longer will Alberta ask permission from Ottawa to be prosperous and free.
“We will not have our voices silenced or censored.
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“We will not be told what we must put in our bodies in order that we may work or travel.
“We will not have our resources landlocked or our energy phased out of existence by virtue-signalling prime ministers.
“Albertans, not Ottawa, will chart our own destiny on our terms, and will work with our fellow Canadians to build the most free and prosperous country on earth.”
On the McDougall steps Friday, Smith did say she’s willing to “reset the relationship” with Ottawa if there’s agreement to give Alberta the same treatment as Quebec. Faint hope.
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Smith sent a friendly letter to her MLAs, stressing unity and promising individual meetings with each member, something Kenney rarely did.
And Brooks-Medicine Hat MLA Michaela Frey resigned her seat, clearing the way for Smith to run in a quick byelection. Smith will go to the ‘Hat Saturday to formally announce. There is no safer UCP territory in the province.
The early premier-designate was very chatty, cheery and friendly at an impromptu scrum. She released the names and titles of her office staff, with campaign chair Rob Anderson at the top of the heap.
She’s moving fast on all fronts. Next Tuesday, she’ll be sworn in as premier.
But the unity problem simmers. Notley said that if UCP MLAs rally behind Smith, “they’ll have to swallow their tongues pretty frequently.”
They’ve never been good at that.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald.
Twitter: @DonBraid
Braid: Smith moves fast on the first and toughest job, uniting her fractious caucus - Calgary Herald
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