In mid-May, the Ukrainian army launched a powerful barrage of 10 American-made Army Tactical Missile System rockets at a Russian base in Belbek outside Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
The raid inflicted as much damage as Ukrainian planners could have realistically hoped for. Photos from the ground confirmed the two-ton ATACMS, each scattering hundreds of grenade-sized bomblets, destroyed a radar and two launchers from an S-400 air-defense battery. There were reports the rockets also damaged four warplanes at a nearby military airfield.
Belbek and Sevastopol are important bases for the Russian air force and what remains of the Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet, so it should come as no surprise that the Russians promptly replaced the wrecked components of the S-400, whose missiles range as far as 250 miles.
And like the punchline of an explosive joke, the Ukrainians bombarded the Belbek S-400 battery again on Tuesday.
Unspecified munitions—likely the same 190-mile-range M39A1 ATACMS that hit Belbek in May—rained down on the Belbek S-400 as well as a two other nearby air-defenses batteries: another S-400 as well as a shorter-ranged S-300.
“At least 10 ATACMS missiles were used in the strike,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported, “with the Russian air-defense system failing to intercept any of them.”
Two radars were destroyed, the Ukrainian defense ministry claimed—one each from an S-300 and S-400 battery. “Regarding the third radar, information is being clarified,” the ministry added. “The detonation of munitions was recorded in all three areas where the anti-aircraft missile systems were stationed.”
Belbek is becoming an attrition trap for the Russian air force’s best air-defense system. The Ukrainians hit fresh missile batteries roughly as fast as they can deploy. Prior to Tuesday, the Russians had lost two S-400 command posts, four radars and 16 launchers that the analysts at Oryx can confirm.
After Tuesday, the toll could be much higher. In all, it’s possible Ukrainian missile raids have destroyed parts of four or five S-400 batteries. Ironically, the S-400 was designed to have an anti-missile capability, but it obviously doesn’t work. Russia’s S-400s can’t defend nearby friendly forces—and they also can’t defend themselves.
The Russian air force has more than 50 S-400 batteries, so it’s not about to run out. But the batteries are useless to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine if they can’t survive Ukrainian rocket attacks. The more S-400s the Russians stage in Ukraine, the more S-400s they’re likely to lose.
Some Russian observers are worried that much worse attacks are coming. If the Ukrainians are following American strike doctrine, attacks on air-defense batteries come first. After that, “aviation based on the F-16 comes into play, under the wings of which there is a wide range of ammunition,” one Russian blogger noted in a missive translated by Estonian analyst War Translated.
The Ukrainian air force is getting 85 ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16s—and already has radar-homing missiles and precision glide-bombs for the F-16s to employ in combat.
The first F-16s—former Danish examples—should arrive in Ukraine any week now. Don’t be shocked if the nimble jets quickly launch for strikes on Russian bases in Crimea. Bases whose air-defenses have been steadily ground down by back-to-back barrages of ATACMS rockets.
Ukrainian ATACMS Rockets Are Blowing Up Russia's Best S-400 Air Defenses As Fast As The S-400s Can Deploy To ... - Forbes
Read More
No comments:
Post a Comment