The writer is a senior fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russia’s latest attacks on Ukrainian cities are a sad reminder that the most horrific pages of this ugly war are still ahead of us. But they also point to something more profound: Vladimir Putin’s appetite for escalation, and the emotional nature of his decision-making. With Ukraine increasingly victorious on the conventional battlefield, the Kremlin’s response is becoming ever more erratic, disproportionate and destructive.
The indiscriminate air strikes came in retaliation for blowing up the Kerch bridge to Crimea. For the Kremlin, the bridge is not only a lifeline connecting mainland Russia with the annexed peninsula (enabling military supplies, among other things), but also a symbol of Putin’s legacy as the ruler who returned Crimea to Mother Russia. Coming the day after Putin’s 70th birthday, the attack must have added insult to injury.
The Kremlin’s response contains two significant lessons. First, Russia still has a vast toolkit for escalation. The tragic events of October 10 are a reminder that no part of Ukraine is safe from Russian attacks, and so no full-scale return of refugees and no reconstruction are possible at this point. Suspected covert attacks against German critical infrastructure show that Nato territory is vulnerable too.
The second lesson is Putin’s reaction to humiliating setbacks. Far from backing down, he will double down with little regard for the strategic consequences of his actions. The air strikes, for example, will most likely result in more western support for Kyiv, including the swift delivery of much-needed air defence systems, and further boost Ukraine’s will to fight the aggressor. Yet Putin ordered the strikes. The same approach prompted his disastrous reaction to the Maidan protests in 2014, and his decision to invade Ukraine.
These lessons are increasingly important. Ukraine’s military gains and the Kremlin’s inability to counter them conventionally may bring the west to the very top of the escalation ladder with a nuclear superpower. Given Putin’s emotionality, this moment could arrive swiftly and unpredictably, leaving decision makers with little time to prepare for something like a Russian military garrison in Kherson being encircled and captured or killed.
President Joe Biden’s sobering remarks about the threat of the use of nuclear weapons show that the White House is clear-eyed about the risk of escalation. For understandable reasons, Washington wants to maintain strategic ambiguity in public while communicating its views to the Kremlin in private. However, attempts to use a combination of new sanctions, more diplomatic isolation and possibly conventional Nato strikes against Russian military targets in Ukraine to deter a desperate Putin from using weapons of mass destruction, should he feel cornered, are by no means guaranteed to succeed. To improve the chances of preventing a showdown, the quiet groundwork for crisis diplomacy should be laid now.
Given the high stakes and emotions, the window for diplomacy is likely to open at the most dramatic moment: for example, when Putin starts to unpack his nuclear toolkit, which will be visible to Nato and involve a lot of signalling by Moscow. Only then might the Ukrainian and western publics be convinced there is an urgent need to negotiate. Diplomacy will have to involve Biden, since the Kremlin considers him the only real head of the opposing coalition.
Close co-ordination with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Nato is essential. The sooner honest, closed-door conversations start, the higher the chance of climbing down the escalation ladder. Finally, given the irreconcilable differences between Moscow and Kyiv on core issues such as the status of Crimea and Donbas, as well as Ukraine’s and the west’s moral imperative not to trade territory for peace, only an armistice that will freeze the front lines can be agreed at this point, not a comprehensive solution to the war.
The risks of escalation in the Ukraine war are rising fast - Financial Times
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