WATERLOO — Wastewater monitoring is showing an “extremely” worrying rise in the COVID-19 signal.
This startling increase being seen by the University of Waterloo wastewater surveillance team is echoed across Ontario as measures to curb the virus’ spread are dropped and people interact more.
“It’s a dramatic increase. We should be extremely concerned,” said biology professor Mark Servos, a Canada Research Chair in water quality protection.
“The whole province is going up dramatically.”
The head of the province’s scientific advisory table said Wednesday that every day there’s an estimated 100,000 to 120,000 new COVID-19 cases in Ontario, based on the amount of the virus being picked up in wastewater. That data is an increasingly important tool to get a handle on how quickly the virus is spreading since the province restricted lab testing late last year to only those at high risk.
If this was during the pandemic’s first waves, people would be stunned by the rapid increase, Servos said. This recent escalation in COVID infections will most likely be followed by a significant rise in hospitalizations, and already the region is reporting more sick people requiring hospital care.
“I’m very concerned for our hospitals. I’m very concerned for our community,” Servos said.
At the end of last week, the wastewater signal was steadily rising but not anywhere near the surge when the Omicron variant first appeared.
“It’s continued to rise and it’s now approaching the peak of Omicron,” Servos said. “Not quite there, but we’re getting close.”
Omicron peaked in January about 10 times higher than previous waves. The first Omicron sub-variant BA.1 has been replaced by BA.2, which has reached almost 100 per cent in the local wastewater signal.
While very little has been predictable during the pandemic, it’s unlikely this sixth wave will subside soon given how easily Omicron and its variations spread, Servos said.
“I would think this level is going to remain high for several weeks before it begins to decline,” Servos said. “What’s clear is it’s not going to be low next week. It’s going to remain high.”
Modelling of this current wave underestimated how quickly people would abandon precautions once requirements were dropped, particularly mandatory masking in most public settings not quite three weeks ago.
People are tired of dealing with COVID-19 after more than two years, especially as the weather is becoming nicer and summer is approaching.
“We wish we weren’t here,” Servos said.
However, the wastewater signal warns it’s “a very serious situation we’re facing.”
Fourth doses of the vaccine can’t be given fast enough to limit this latest wave, making distancing and masking vital — especially if a new, more dangerous variant emerges.
Many local medical officers of health, including Waterloo Region’s Dr. Hsiu-Li Wang, advise people to continue wearing a mask in indoor public settings.
“It is such a simple measure for prevention,” Servos said.
While people who are fully vaccinated with a booster dose are not likely to end up in hospital, they can still become quite sick. But there are also many in the community who are not able to be vaccinated, including children under five, or who aren’t fully protected by the vaccine.
“The more it spreads, the more likely it’s going to get to the vulnerable people,” Servos said. “We need to protect everybody, not just ourselves.”
'We should be extremely concerned' by fast rising COVID wastewater signal, Waterloo expert warns - Waterloo Region Record
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