Opinion | Biden's approval rating is slipping fast. Democrats should be nervous. - The Washington Post

The media is hammering President Biden over the chaotic fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban. That can only amplify what was already a slow but steady decline in his job approval numbers.

Biden started his presidency in good standing with a healthy 55.5 percent approval rating in the RealClearPolitics polling average. His net favorability began to decline in the late spring as previously undecided respondents said they disapproved of his performance, but his favorability ratings remained stable and high. His job approval rating was 54.9 percent on May 25, a statistically insignificant drop from his early standing.

That standing has been in steady decline ever since. His job approval dropped to 53 percent by June 25 and 52.2 percent by July 25. As of Wednesday, it stands at 49.6 percent. Disapprovals are also at a record high of 47.2 percent. That 2.4 percentage point net favorability is the lowest of his presidency.

This should be especially troubling to Democrats because the polling average includes only two polls taken as Kabul was falling to the Taliban. Those polls — the GOP-leaning Rasmussen Report and the Economist/YouGov weekly survey — show Biden’s net favorability at negative eight and even, respectively. The Reuters-Ipsos poll from last week that is included in the average gave him a 51 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable rating. But a one-day poll taken by the company on Monday found his favorability had dropped to 46 percent, the lowest mark in that poll of his tenure.

None of this should come as a surprise to the administration or to Democrats. Presidential ratings tend to fall over time from a post-inauguration high. Analysts from both parties have long argued that the odds were against Democrats holding their congressional majorities in the midterm elections given their slim margins and historical trends.

Biden’s fall from grace, however, is eerily similar to Barack Obama’s decline in a similar period. Obama started his presidency in stronger shape, with a 65.5 percent job approval rating and net 40 rating on Feb. 15, 2009. Like Biden, Obama’s approval ratings stayed relatively high through the spring even as his disapprovals slowly rose. On June 23, 2009, Obama’s approval rating was still at 60 percent, and his net approval was a healthy 27 points.

The decline started to happen as the summer recess kicked in and Americans started to focus on his Obamacare proposal. His job approval dropped to 51.4 percent on Aug. 19, and his net approval dropped to 10 points. The writing was on the wall: Democrats were pushing Obamacare too much and too fast for centrists and independents.

Something similar is probably what was behind Biden’s pre-Afghanistan decline. As the pandemic faded into the background with the rise in vaccinations, many American voters started to think about other things. They saw high inflation and an administration focused more on pushing an unprecedented expansion of federal government power than on economic recovery. The gross incompetence on display now will only add to the sense that the administration is out of touch and out of control.

Biden’s weakness is most apparent among independent voters. More of this crucial bloc disapproved of Biden’s performance than approved of it in the most recent Economist/YouGov and Politico-Morning Consult polls, and he had only a 44 percent approval rating with independents in the pre-Monday Reuters-Ipsos poll. While Democrats remain staunchly in support, that simply isn’t enough to preserve the party’s congressional majority given that the Democratic base support is concentrated in a small number of urban areas. It simply doesn’t matter how many votes the party gets in New York or the Silicon Valley; if it loses among independents, it will lose seats in more marginal suburban and rural seats nationwide.

Republicans are surely salivating over what might happen next. If Biden placates his party’s vocal progressive base, he will double down on pushing as much of his liberal agenda through as possible. The more he gives them, the likelier a 2010-style GOP tsunami reappears. If he plays for the general election, however, he angers that base. That will increase intraparty strife, which will become a major issue in 2022 as progressives challenge less-leftist incumbents and push for more left-wing policies to motivate the party’s base to vote. There’s no sign that progressives will sit quietly if Biden chooses the latter approach, and there’s no evidence that independent voters will sit quietly in the Democratic column if Biden pushes leftward.

Biden’s coalition was always more anti-Trump than pro-Democratic. His declining job approval ratings are a sign of that. The Democratic dilemma won’t go away soon no matter what happens in Afghanistan.

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Opinion | Biden's approval rating is slipping fast. Democrats should be nervous. - The Washington Post
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