A YEAR AGO, as countries locked down amid spiralling covid-19 infections and deaths, some environmentalists heralded a potential silver lining to the pandemic: a decline in the world’s use of fossil fuels, and therefore greenhouse-gas emissions. Indeed, global energy-related carbon emissions fell by 5.8% in 2020, or nearly 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, thanks to reduced demand for oil, coal and gas. Such a reduction, alone, would have no long-term impact on global temperatures, which depend on cumulative emissions in the atmosphere. But the hope among climate optimists was that falling emissions might cause a further shift away from fossil fuels towards cleaner energy sources.
A new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental forecaster, suggests that this hope may have been misplaced. In its latest Global Energy Review, the IEA predicts that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will rise by 1.5 gigatonnes to 33 gigatonnes in 2021, an increase of almost 5%. In absolute terms this would be the largest increase since 2010 when, after the global financial crisis of 2007-09, governments poured cash into carbon-intensive projects in an effort to pull their economies out of recession.
Most of the increase in emissions predicted for 2021 will be driven by a dramatic rebound in the burning of coal, particularly in China. The IEA thinks global demand for coal will approach the peak of 2014. It also expects global demand for natural gas to exceed the level of 2019. Demand for both fuels will be pushed up by higher consumption once vaccination roll-outs cause societies to open back up. Oil will also rebound, though at a slower rate because of the sluggish recovery of aviation. All told, emissions will be slightly lower in 2021 than before the pandemic, but are likely to quickly exceed 2019 levels once lingering coronavirus restrictions—such as limits on international travel—are lifted.
The IEA expects renewable-energy generation to rise, too. In 2021 renewable sources will account for 30% of global electricity, its largest ever share. Wind and solar power is on track for its largest rise in history. But even these achievements will be eclipsed by the increased use of fossil fuels to meet global energy demand, which is expected to grow by 4.6%.
If such predictions are borne out, 2020 will have been little more than a temporary dip in the world’s emissions, not a turning point. For Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, this is evidence that not nearly enough is being done to protect the environment as the world emerges from the pandemic. “This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” Mr Birol said. “Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022.”
Greenhouse-gas emissions are set to rise fast in 2021 - The Economist
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